Fed meets with ‘taper’ plan likely on hold

NEW YORK — Back in September, the last time the Federal Reserve met on monetary policy, they voted not to start dialing back their market-friendly bond-buying program. Some said the vote was a "relatively close call."

Since then, the economy has been blindsided by a 16-day government shutdown that delayed the release of key economic data and dented consumer confidence.

There has also been soft incoming readings on employment and housing, two areas the Fed wants to see perk up dramatically before reducing its stimulus.

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The bottom line: Tapering is off the table this month, too. And the Fed will likely let the world know that when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday.

"We doubt the vote (not to taper) will be nearly as close for most Fed members this time around," Michael Hanson, U.S. economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted in a report.

So, will the Fed start cutting back on its $85 billion in monthly purchases of long-term U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds at its December meeting? Or wait until 2014, as many economists say is more likely?

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"The timing of tapering is still open to debate," says Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.

In search of clues, investors will scrutinize the Fed's post-meeting statement. But Hanson says the "most interesting aspects" of the Fed's discussion "won't be revealed" until the minutes of the October meeting are released in mid-November.